The Myth of Consensus Replacing the One Number Forecast with a Collaborative Process Forecast

A one-number forecast has some serious drawbacks: it does not always facilitate honest discussion about constraints, it encourages people to agree to numbers they cannot necessarily meet, and certain participants may game the process. There is a better way—what I call the Collaborative Process Forecast allows each function to share what risks they see in meeting the number, and what opportunities exist to exceed it, as well as providing participants with greater visibility into the constraints other functions are facing. While requiring more work, this process drives better performance in key KPIs and fosters greater engagement with the S&OP process.