This column discusses the failure of the political pollsters (as a group) to adequately project President Trump as the winner of the 2016 campaign. It first discusses some of the forecasting lessons I’ve written about, and how they might relate to the pollsters’ performance. It then discusses articles that have been written about the reasons why they failed to adequately poll the voter base prior to the election.

From Issue: Improving Accuracy through Forecast Value Added Analysis
(Spring 2017)

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Comments on the 2016 Presidential Polling