Executive S&OP: How to Implement and Operate it Successfully
MODERATOR:
Tom Wallace, President T.F. Wallace & Company
A company’s success is measured by its financial performance as well as by its track record in satisfying customer and market needs. Successfully implementing an Executive Sales and Operating Planning (S&OP) process does both. The key to the success of an Executive S&OP process is optimizing and balancing how Supply, Demand, Financial plans and Strategic goals are aligned. Furthermore, the role and continuous commitment of executives is extremely, if not, most important. This panel will help answer: Who has the power to make the critical decision? Who should be a part of the process? What actionable information should upper management look for, as well as want to hear? Change management and overcoming cultural obstacles will also be discussed. Calling on the experience and lessons learned of senior management who have done it well, we will also show best practices in translating the output, executing and planning with outside suppliers who may be a part of your process, and more.
Key Learnings
Panelists:
Amy Mansfield, Production Planning Manager
V&M STAR
Seema Phull, VP of Materials Management Strategy and Integration
HONEYWELL
Michael Kehlet, Senior Director Global Sales & Operations
LEGO GROUP
Dick Clark, Demand Planning Global Process Owner
PROCTER & GAMBLE
Demand Management and Collaboration for Better Supply Chain Performance
MODERATOR:
Larry Lapide, Ph.D., Director, Demand Management MIT CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION &LOGISTICS
Collaboration both within and outside the enterprise continues to gain momentum for demand planning & forecasting. It is especially important during tough economic times and for coming out of them stronger. Processes such as VMI, CPFR, consensus forecasting, and predictive markets are some of the collaborative processes being leveraged to improve information flow and forecasting & planning performance by ensuring that everyone at the company is hearing the same message even when there is a change in direction or strategy. These processes gather knowledge and various demand & supply signals that provide a clearer picture of your supply chain’s & consumer’s behavior. During the forum, you will hear discussions about processes for better collaboration and how to maintain strong, honest working relationships on both sides. We will also discuss pitfalls and how to avoid them. Plus, there will be a group discussion about the viability of new areas such as predictive markets, as well as, software needed to facilitate collaboration.
Key Learnings
Panelists Include:
Richard Hansen, VP of Demand Management
MAIDENFORM
John Gallucci, Director of Demand Management
NESTLE
Michael Kehlet, Senior Director Global Sales & Operations
LEGO GROUP
Kathy Rodriguez, Director
GENERAL MILLS
Peter W. Murray, Global Competency and Development Leader
DUPONT
Workshop III: Next Gen S&OP-Scenario Planning by Predictive Analytics & Digital Modeling
Peter W. Murray
Global Competency and Development Leader
DuPont
Gregory L. Schlegel
Vice President Business Development
SherTrack LLC
Join us for an interactive, wide perspective on the S&OP process, what exists, the vision of Next Gen S&OP and a roadmap between the two. This workshop has something for everyone who’s presently “In-the-S&OP Game”-- from novice, to early adopters up through the very mature process owner/organization. We will walk through several aspects of the S&OP process from the practitioner, academician and consultant’s perspective.
You will learn:
Workshop II: How to Improve New Product Forecasting and Manage the Games People Play
George Foldes,
Director Strategic Business Analytics Vifor Pharma
New product forecasting is a process which starts well before the launch and does not end until the product is proven to be a success or a failure. Unfortunately, failures tend to dominate, and then the blame game starts. There are instances when the root cause of product failure is a poorly prepared forecast. Often, a major contributor to a failed launch is the political games surrounding the forecast. In this workshop, we will talk about new product forecasting methods and teach you how to manage the politics.
You will learn:
Workshop I: How to Prepare Safety Stock/ Inventory Levels with Forecasts
Richard Herrin
Global Sales, Operations, and Inventory Planning Manager Tredegar Film Products
The key objective of statistical forecasting is to identify expected demand that supply can meet. This can be achieved either through replenishing within lead times or by carrying safety stock. The decision on the amount of safety stock to carry can become contentious. This workshop will explain the costs involved with carrying excess inventory, various methods to increase return on inventory, and analytical methods for calculating safety stock with forecasts to cover varying demand for stable and seasonal products.
You will learn:
1-Day Hands-On Statistical Forecasting & Planning Tutorial
Fred M. Andres
President Phredtek Inc.
SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS FORECASTING
a] Extrapolative (time series) methods
b] Explanatory (cause-and-effect) methods
c] Judgmental methods
SECTION 2
INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES: SIMPLE AVERAGES, MOVING
AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Among all models, time series models are the ones that are used most in business
SECTION 3
REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING
Regression is the basic tool for measuring the relationship between variables.
It is often used where some understanding of the underlying reasons for the forecasted values is needed.
SECTION 4
FORECASTING ACCURACY
The measurement of forecast accuracy is essential in any forecasting process.
SECTION 5
“PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER”
MS-EXCEL WILL BE USED FOR DEMONSTRATION/EXERCISES.
PLEASE BRING ALONG YOUR LAPTOP!
LUNCH With Keynote Speaker
Dick Clark Associate Director of Demand Planning P&G
Forecasting in Challenging Economic Times
Reaching Back into the Supply Chain for an Improved S&OP Process
Grant Hoffman,
Director of Global Business Operations Motorola
As mature S&OP processes look for ways to improve, reaching back into the supply chain and making a connection with suppliers can breathe new found opportunities back into your S&OP process. This session will present Motorola’s success gained by reaching back and how a formalized ‘Supplier S&OP’ process with critical long lead-time and tier two suppliers has improved and revitalized the core S&OP processes.
You will learn:
The Evolution of Demand Planning – Beyond Predicting Demand
Michelle Barnett
Vice President, Strategic Services Ascent Healthcare Solutions
In this challenging economy, many find themselves struggling to get more value from their resources and processes. This session presents a Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) process over two years and how the Demand Planning role was created in the process. As the S&OP process has matured, Demand Planning branched out to a more collaborative role, utilizing data gathered by the other teams. In this session, learn to take advantage of data analysis to not only predict demand, but help influence it.
You will learn:
CPG Track: Sweating the Data Details—Improving Your Demand Planning with POS Forecasting
John Gallucci,
Director of Demand Planning Nestle Infant Nutrition
POS data can give you a big competitive advantage in demand planning and supply chain management. In this presentation, we will discuss the advantages of using POS data for minimizing the bullwhip effect, gaining a better understanding of your customers and aligning supply effectively with demand. We will also discuss how to use POS history as a reference for the future, how to tie POS Forecasts to the demand plan, and how to use POS forecasts independent of the demand plan. We will also demonstrate lessons learned, and how you can avoid the pitfalls.
You will learn:
Afternoon Break
Implementing “Next level” Demand Planning in a Seasonal and Unpredictable Market
Michael S. Kehlet
Senior Director of Demand Planning Lego
Successfully predicting demand in a seasonal business requires a strong foundation in the basics of Demand Planning. This session continues building on that foundation and taking the process to the “next level”, a much higher level of collaboration and engagement of sales, marketing and top management. We demonstrate how to utilize a strong scenario planning process to capture opportunities in the market place and build the right capabilities, not only in your Demand Planning team, but also cross functionally.
You will learn:
How to Identify and Manage those Pesky “Unforecastables”
Alan L. Milliken CFPIM CSCP CPF
Business Process Education Manager BASF Corporation
Pareto’s Law is alive and well in the demand planning arena. Many businesses are finding that while most of their volume can be forecasted using conventional time series approaches as many as 50% of their SKU’s are “unforecastable.” Some firms have chosen to ignore this problem and drive their planning with forecasts that are largely more wrong than right, leading to excess inventories, poor customer service and cost increases. In this session, you will learn techniques for handling the unforecastable items and see significant success with items previously ignored in forecasts.
You will learn:
CPG Track: Demand Forecasting and Planning: Strategies from those who Thrive in these Turbulent Times
Tom Vogel
Director of Supply Chain Integration Dreyer’s Grand Ice Cream Inc.
Ritu Jain
Industry Marketing Manager, Manufacturing and Supply Chain SAS
Why do some companies continue to thrive despite today’s increasingly complex business environment while others struggle to survive? This session presents insights on how best in class companies differ from the rest in their approach to demand forecasting and planning. Based on findings from a survey of 170+ individual enterprises, the session shares forecasting best practices of industry leaders as well as outlines a systematic, data-based framework for companies to move up the demand planning maturity curve.
You will learn:
5 Round Robin, Table Discussion Topics
Increase your networking opportunities at IBF’s Orlando conference by joining us in our all new one hour Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up the most challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the field and hear and share best practices. Choose up to 3 of 5 timely and practical topics provided for your professional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you are able to provide your customers, and increase your contact base in the demand planning & forecasting community. All experience levels are invited and welcome. Plus, get a head start networking right before IBF’s Cocktail Reception!
Round Robin Topics Include:
IBF Cocktail Reception
Morning Keynote Presentation
Seema Phull,
Vice President Honeywell
S&OP: Journey or Destination
On-Demand, Inventory and Supply Reconciliation for Capacity Constrained Operations
Jose Hernandez
Sales and Operations Planning Leader W.R. Grace & Co.
This session will illustrate the challenge of demand uncertainty in a capacity constrained environment. We will review a near-real time process to make short-term operational decisions regarding building to order vs. building to forecast. You will see a solution that includes a graphical display that links Inventory, remaining capacity, actual shipments, open orders and finally, the published monthly forecast.
You will learn:
How to Revitalize, Improve and Grow Your S&OP Process
Todd Dunn
Director, Supply Chain and Purchasing Accucaps
Many companies have attempted to use S&OP, with less than stellar results. Others succeed with S&OP, but then plateau or level off and are unable to break through with progress. This session will demonstrate how to move from a false start or stalled process to best practices, creating commitment, discipline, and structure while cutting costs and generating more income for your organization.
You will learn:
CPG Track: Timberland’s Demand Management and S&OP Evolution: Presenting Stage 2
Todd Gallant
Director of Planning Timberland
After spending Stage 1 understanding, evolving and harmonizing the demand management process, Timberland is moving forward with the next phase of its demand planning and S&OP evolution. Stage 2 involves identifying demand planning best practices for the different business units. In this session, you will hear the challenges faced implementing these steps, including the obstacles we expect to face while completing the 5-stage process with an overarching Executive S&OP. You will learn valuable lessons from our misjudgments and see how to avoid similar pitfalls and obstacles in your business.
You will learn:
Ensuring Success by Integrating Risk Management with the S&OP Process
Curtis Brewer
Head of Consumer Forecasting Bayer CropScience
How integrated is risk management in your existing S&OP Process? What would you do if a supplier had a major industrial accident and was unable to supply your product? Or a longshoreman strike cut off shipments from the port? We will explore how risk management can be incorporated into the S&OP process and how to communicate these plans within our organization. In this session, we will give real world examples of places where this type of planning could have prevented a situation from becoming a catastrophe.
You will learn:
Being a Customer of the Forecast: A Senior Executive's Viewpoint on Forecasting & Planning
Mike Birch
Vice President of Operations Ping Golf
The work of sales planning and operations planning are only really effective when done as a single process – not a hand-off. The first part of this presentation emphasizes that position by expanding the discussion from an operations viewpoint. We also discuss painful lessons learned, ways that forecasting and operational planning teams miss-communicate and ways to avoid this miscommunication. In the end, we take a look at forecasting from an executive viewpoint in terms of trade-offs, corporate goals, and risk mitigation.
You will learn:
CPG Track: Use the S&OP Process to Ensure Forecast Quality and Support Long-Term Planning
Mark Covas
Innovation Diamond Management P&G
In an effectively run S&OP process it is important to include a long term view of future demand, at least 18 to 24 months out. Marketing and Sales often focus on Fiscal Year projections, just a 12 month window, but Forecasters need to provide Sr. Management and the Supply Planning organization a complete picture of future demand. Relying on statistical forecasts 24 months out may not reflect future marketing plans/spending or new product introductions. The S&OP process can close those gaps and provide better forward visibility.
You will learn:
Morning Break
How to Forecast the Hotel Supply Chain in Troubled Times and Leverage Demand Shaping Techniques with Product Pricing
William Perry, Jr.
Director of Revenue Management Hilton Orlando
Chain hotels use dynamic forecasting systems that build models based on real time data and historical trends to forecast supply chain resources. This session uses a Hilton hotel as a case study and presents its application of the forecasting model to recommend guest room pricing based on market demand. The case study will explore how current economic trends impact the forecasting model, and service supply chain based on dynamic data. Learn how to utilize these methods across a wide variety of industries and improve pricing strategy through demand shaping techniques.
You will learn:
Evaluating Forecast Accuracy-Choosing the Right Forecast Error Metric
Rudranil Manna
Statistics Research Analyst Walt Disney World
Anjali Dange
Manager, Statistics Research Walt Disney World
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is the most commonly used error metric to evaluate forecast accuracy, but MAPE has limitations. Other metrics can be used that compensate for MAPE’s limitations, but in the case of a longer forecasting horizon with highly volatile series, none of these metrics in their traditional form are successful. In this presentation, we will review the strengths and weaknesses of MAPE and pitfalls to be aware of while using this metric. We also present alternative forecast accuracy measures to address the limitations of MAPE.
You will learn:
CPG Track: How to Accelerate the Implementation of S&OP and Avoid Pitfalls: A Land O’ Lakes Journey
Joseph Stackhouse
Director, Supply Chain Operations Land O'Lakes, Inc
Christal McManus
S&OP Manager
WinField Solutions, a $3 billion (sales) division of Land O'Lakes, Inc., instituted an S&OP process that went live in March, 2009. In this session, we will focus on the early benefits identified as well as key lessons learned. The presentation will include data on inventory reduction as well as anecdotal information on the conversations taking place because of the S&OP process. The lessons learned will reveal how to overcome the difficulties in both the data and change management.
You will learn:
LUNCH
Lean Supply Chain: Recent Lessons from Implementing Toyota Pull Systems
Thomas Kim
Manager, Supply Chain Strategy The Morey Corporation
With 50% sales growth in one year, customer delivery was in jeopardy due to the inadequate systems and culture. This session will unfold one company’s story from the perspective of the supply chain. We present some of the key lessons learned, and illustrate the current struggles yet to be overcome. Join us to see how Lean has affected the bottom line and customer delivery. We will take an honest look at implementing Lean in the supply chain both practically and culturally.
You will learn:
CPG Track: Attracting and Retaining Demand Planning & Forecasting Talent
Lisa Bakazias
Senior Director of Supply Chain Planning Campbell Soup
Jason Breault
Managing Director TopGrading Solutions
Regardless of the current economic situation, the increasing focus on using statistical data to manage the business is creating a shortage of demand planning & Forecasting talent. Is this shortage preventing you from being able to focus on strategic initiatives, or your team from hitting its goals? You’re not alone. Come learn how leading organizations, such as Campbell Soup Company are attracting and retaining the best talent in order to deliver on – and exceed - the continuously higher expectations being set, and the net positive result once those teams are in place. Furthermore, the future of demand planning & forecasting and its career track will also be discussed in this session.
You will learn:
Forecasting & Planning Advisory Services Session
Bring your data and the problems that plague your team and have them solved by a seasoned practitioner who has found success in many facets of the forecasting & planning field.
Area Demand Review – Improving Accuracy by Narrowing Your Forecast
Mirella Mollica
Senior Business Analyst Abbott Laboratories
The Area Demand Review (ADR) process is one of the key steps in the Global Division Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) process. This process includes a review of affiliates demand statements focusing on the 3-24 month horizon. We also review finances, past performance and key performance indicators, including supply influences, in order to arrive at expected demand and increase forecast accuracy. Join us to learn how to expand your company’s bottom line by narrowing your forecasts focus.
You will learn:
Prediction Markets:Transforming Distributed Supply Chain Knowledge into Real-Time Forecasts
Oliver Brandte
President, US Operations Analyx
Aleksandar Ivanov
Head of Advanced Methods
Prediction Markets are an E-Collaboration tool which, unlike databases and Wikis, not only collect distributed information among supply chain participants, but directly transform it into actionable forecasts. A leading German retail chain (>1200 shops) uses EPM to harvest the knowledge of employees in stores, central warehouse locations, and headquarters to transform it into real-time sales forecasts. The key success factor is the motivation of people for participating in the collaborative effort.
You Will Learn:
Right-Sized Inventory: How Forecasting Affects Safety Stocks and Customer Service Levels
Terese Hunwick
Managing Director Thayer Carver, Inc.
How do we balance the cost of safety stocks with the cost of missing orders or incurring expediting costs when forecast assumptions are unreliable? We will explore the cost/benefit relationship of safety stock and customer service levels. Also we will illustrate how to focus efforts to improve safety stock levels, customer service, working capital and margins by sharing a proven business case and how to sell the financial benefit to your internal stakeholders.
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CPG Track: How to Go From a Legacy System to Large ERP Such as SAP/ APO in 6 Months
Carol Breslin
Manager, Demand Planning Maple Leaf Foods, Inc.
Hear the personal experience of moving a company from legacy systems onto SAP in six months. The focus is on the journey to implement APO- Demand Planning, from decision to full implementation. The discussion will be centered on what went right, what could have been improved upon, recommendations on what to do differently and what would remain unchanged. This discussion highlights the importance of having the right personnel involved at every step of the implementation, as well as process changes that need to take place. This session is applicable for all those migrating from a legacy system to a demand planning & forecasting solution.
You will learn: